Risks of cultural, spiritual and economic pattern for the depopulation of Europe

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New an emerging sciences and technology
Insight projects

Outline of the proposal of the project sub title :

Risks of actual cultural, spiritual and economic pattern for the depopulation of Europe - investigation of possible, necessary modifications.

Result of evaluation of this proposal see here

Ad. 1. Objectives of the website

We received a little grant from the Polish Committee for Scientific Research, which aims to support the endeavors to elaborate a proposal for 6th FP of the EU RTD&D Commission.

We decided to concentrate on the possibility of the elaboration of the proposal for the call published on 27 February 2003 on " New and Emerging Science and Technology " - for action line INSIGHT projects ( call reference number/identifier : FP6-2003-NEST-A ).

The RTD&D Commission precise ( under http://www.cordis.lu/fp6/nest_mechanisms.htm ) that:

"... INSIGHT projects are designed to investigate and evaluate new discoveries or phenomena which may bring new risks and potential problems for European society. Their aim will be to generate and consolidate scientific understanding, as well as to assist in formulating responses to address such problems... As with other NEST activities, INSIGHT projects may, in principle, be undertaken in any scientific field. Their key attribute will be that they address newly-apparent developments which suggest significant potential risks. In character with NEST's principles, INSIGHT project teams will also in many cases adopt innovative and unconventional approaches.

INSIGHT projects will be implemented through 'specific targeted research projects' or 'co-ordination actions'... the first stage will require a demonstration of the importance and urgency of research on the topic proposed..."

The commission foresee for the mentioned type of proposals so called STREP or CA instruments (specific targeted research project or co -ordination actions). The second deadline is 22 October 2003.

Taking into account these requirements, we present just now idea suitable for an INSIGHT projects ). So, we invite for the cooperation in the elaboration of the proposal sub title : " Risks of actual cultural, spiritual and economic pattern for the depopulation of Europe - investigation of possible, necessary modifications ".

We imagine the cooperation on elaboration of the proposal in the following way:

1. This website constitutes the origin of a tool to communicate and gather slowly all necessary materials necessary to complete the text of the proposal.

2. The first stage could consists on exchange of ideas and even the 'brain storming phase'. We will insert to the mentioned website all important messages.

3. On the basis of this kind of discussion we will try to improve the list of anticipated workpakages and the list of deliverables. We foresee to present in this website also the detailed descriptions of most of workpackages. It would be useful and the work would progress quickly if interested potential partners will formulate workackages about the work, which they would like to perform.

4. When the website will contain almost all necessary documents some final steps necessary to the elaboration of the proposal can be accomplished also by any partner, who would like to take the role of the general coordinator.

5. One of the partner should prepare conditions to send the proposal by using the ' electronic tool '.

Because we believe in pragmatic methodology -- that the difficult task ( problem ) should be resolved ' step by step ', in such a manner that the result cannot be none !!! , therefore temporary we assume that this software platform will originate from our websites, accessible under http://e-learning5.webpark.pl/consciousness.htm ( or in the time of disturbed access to the University server ..on the free accessible server under http://www.angelfire.com/ab2/brodziak/depopulation.htm .

Even, if we will not succeed to write the proposal before the deadline 22.11.2003 it will be possible to continue the effort till the second or third 6FP call for proposals or even to present the content to other institutions allocation grants for endeavors important to general society..

The contemporary scientific research should touch also the problem of the low birth rate in all European countries. So called 'children/woman ratio' for all EU countries is now estimated to be 1,49. The value 2,1 is necessary to maintain the steady number of the population. It causes the quick decrease of overall European populations. By the year 2100 the European population will count only the half of contemporary number. We can anticipate very soon the depopulation of many regions in Europe, because the ratio is very low in some countries like Italy, Greece, Czech Republic, Latvia or Hungaria.

Paradoxically in most of European countries the prevalent state of mind of citizens

causes the intensifications of political attitudes reluctant to the immigration from other countries. Moreover another paradox existing in some of these countries consists on simultaneous increasing unemployment with decreasing number of the population.

However the birth rate is low also in rich European countries, like Germany, Denmark or Sweden.

This demographic situation is the challenge to the scientific community. The understanding of this phenomena is possible only by very interdisciplinary research and considerations, taking into account the psychological, religious, social and especially cultural factors. The problem is related to the average, spiritual state of mind of European citizens.

The understanding of the deep sociological and psychological reasons would facilitate the formulation of some practical social and economic interventions and the new cultural patterns, which should be promoted by mass media to overcome this demographic crisis.

1. Collection of reliable demographic data concerning the rate of birth, children/women ratiom and its trends in all European
countries. ( Workpackage A.1. - WP-A.1.)
2. Evaluation of consequences of the anticipated trends toward aged societies on

      (a) inflow of educated vital, resilient people necessary for the maintenance of structure and production of highly technological
            societies of EU member countries and all EU.
           ( Workpackage A.2.a. - WP-A.2.a.)
      (b) possibilities of payments for retired persons ( Workpackage A.2.b. - WP-A.2.b.)
      (c) possibilities of maintenance of health care of aged populations ( WP-A.2.c )
      (d) on cultural/spiritual condition of aged populations ( WP-A.2.d )
      (e) depopulation of some geographical regions ( WP-A.2.e )
      (f) inevitable legal or non legal immigration ( WP-A.2.f )
      (g) on possibilities of peaceful coexistence of aged ethnic Europeans and younger immigrant subpopulations. ( WP-A.2.g )

3. Sociological and psychological investigation of attitudes, believes and convictions of young people of European countries leading to
    prevalence of the family patterns like : { one plus two model} , { one child in a marriage } , { marriage with no children },
   { living alone but having a child }, { living    alone without will to have a child }
    ( WP-A.3 )

4. Psychological investigation of the actual, real average prevalent typical and unusual mental image of a child in the mind of
contemporary men and women. ( WP-A.4 )

5. Interdisciplinary investigation of relations between actual { patterns of family } , { mental image of a child } and prevalent
religious believes, implicit religiosity ; contemporary spirituality. ( WP-A.5 )

6. Anthropological investigation of the vitality { youth - aged ; energy, power } factor of a population, which can be on the average
'very tired'. ( WP-A.6 )

7. Interdisciplinary investigation ( psychological, sociological and mass - media analysis ) of   relation between actual { pattern of
    family } ; { mental image of a child }, anthropological vitality factor of the population, contemporary real spirituality and
    the content of average mass - media emissions, most popular journals and novels. ( WP-A.7 )

Proposed investigation of multiple aspects of the present situation should lead first of all to the conclusion and decisions:

If the observed decrease of birth rate is a positive or negative phenomenon ? Should we try to prevent further
decrease of 'children/women ratio' or not ?

When we will draw the conclusion that we should try to prevent the appearing demographic catastrophe, then we should plan multiple rescue actions. Some of these possible saving actions will depend from the results of presented, planed investigations.

The trial of formulation of the proposal of the project, which apart of the analysis ofv the actual situation will indicate also the possible remedies and even begin the implementation of some of these remedies force us to propose already, just now, some directions of 'rescue actions'.

We assume that : (1) the trials of modification of the actual prevalent cultural and spiritual pattern are necessary and that (2) these trials must be supported by concrete, radical economical changes of women and families, who decided to have a child or at least second or third child.

If the contemporary societies will find the way to improve radically the economic situation and therefore a social position of those women and families it will be easy to implement the actions leading to modification of the actual prevalent cultural and spiritual pattern.

Probably the right basis for the solution of the problem would be the radical improvement of economical position of women having two, three children by allocation of reward, of a pension, which would be equivalent to the average 'good' wages.

[ We should emphasize here at once, that in our opinion, the present cultural pattern is so pondering that it economic change could be not sufficient..]

Anyhow, the key element of solution of the problem consists on question : who should pay for rewards for women or from were take the money ?

Our proposal of the project would be not justified if we will not found probably the appropriate source for these expenses . This unusual idea arises from phenomenological reflection upon recently emerging characteristics of highly technological human civilization. Our finding is in fact supported by independent presentations of some ideas related to so called ' third sector of human activities ' by leading experts in the economy and finances management.

For example, Jeremy Rifkin in his book sub title " The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era " had proposed already that the work in the third sector ( social non- productive activities, which improve however the quality of life ) should be paid by the new form of taxes imposed to the biggest holdings and companies utilizing high technology and high rate of automatization ( 1,2,3) .

The careful consideration of the actual point of the development of the human civilization allow to remark that high level of automatisation really lead to the reduction of the human population.

The possibility to produce all necessary food by 5-7 % of people of the population working in modern farms and the possibility to produce all necessary material objects by next 10 - 15 % of population working in modern automatized factories causes in effect unemployment. It should be remarked that the phenomenon of unemployment is transferred ( 'exported ' ) from technologically pioneering countries ( ' producing for all the world ' ) to less developed countries, which are not able to compete with modern industrial companies and their products.

This transfer of the 'unemployment and poverty' is one of the most important factors causing the decreasing rate of birth in such countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Baltic countries.

The trend for depopulation in Greece, Italy, Germany and Scandinavian countries probably is conditioned mostly by cultural pattern.

Our conclusion from the presented inference is : " The world is not for automata but for people !!! "

People should find equilibrium between the work controlled, accelerated and multiplied by ' processors ' and work performed by people. Processors should not replace women having children and wanting bring them up correctly, what is time consuming, burdensome and difficult human effort.

It seems to us that the possible regulations should be based not on the new taxes imposed on working people and even not on companies.

The simple known controlling factor can be used. The modern economy utilize often the mechanism of so called excise.

Excises ( in another word duties ) on borders regulate sometime the economic discrepancies between industry and agriculture of different countries.

Excises imposed on gasoline or alcohol avail the opportunity from low costs of acquisition or production of these substances, what allow to finance many needs of national state budget.

It seems that similar economic mechanism should be utilized for the solution of the problem of the depopulation. This mechanism should consists on :

The imposition of excise on sale of any processor and on transfer of this money with destination to accounts, which will form funds enabling rewards for women having second or third child.

The appropriate short watchword ( slogan, hint ) should be proposed for this basic idea of the project. Probably it could be the sentence " excise on processors for rewards of maternity " ( EP- RM ).

Of cause technician experts could formulate more sophisticated rules of the excise, which should be probably imposed on sale and utilization of technical engines, which lead to massive reduction of job positions.

Why the scientific project is necessary, when the idea of the solution of the mentioned problem is so simple and clear already a priori ?

The idea of the solution of the problem of the ongoing depopulation of Europe is simple however its realization is very difficult, because the crucial key element consists on change in the allocation of money. This kind of 'social modification' is always extremely difficult and has usually political character.

The scientific research is necessary to prepare the schedule of subsequent right, effective steps of the argumentation, which should be presented first to the scientists in the realm of demography, sociology and psychology, then to the journalists and managers of mass media. It would prepare the possibility to convince the politicians and the lobby of the owners of the capital.

So the goal of the project would relay mainly on the task " how to prepare the program of the argumentation, which will enable to convince influential journalists and politicians to the presented idea of the effective solution of the problem.

The course of the realization of the project in that part probably should be as follows :

1. Elaboration by an interdisciplinary group of experts of demography, sociology and psychology of the text, which could
serve as the ' manifest ' presenting the subject of " excise on processors for rewards of maternity " ( EP- RM ) for the journalists
and managers of mass media. ( Workpackage B.1 )

2. Elaboration by the enlarged interdisciplinary team of scientists and mass - media analysts of the text constituting the '
manifest ' for politicians on the subject of " excise on processors for rewards of maternity " ( EP- RM ). ( WP B.2.)

3. Elaboration by the enlarged interdisciplinary team of scientists, mass - media analysts and politicians of the text
   constituting the ' manifest ' ...of the new, possible political movement, which could even constitute the main point of the program
   for the next electoral campaign based on the idea of necessary, new legislation enabling to input the rule of " excise on
   processors for rewards of maternity " ( EP- RM ). It seems that the convincing schedule of actions leading to overcome one of
   the most cumbersome societal problem could constitute the essence of the popular political program even for a new political
   party. ( WP B.3 )

4. Because we argue that solution of the problem of threat of depopulation must involve even politicians, decided to impose in
   fact the new ' social agreement ' it is necessary to convince the most influential contemporary lobby, it means the
   owners of capital. The profit and the good perspectives of big holdings will diminish, when the number of populations will
   decrease, therefore there are the chance for the ' new social agreement ' ; which should be implemented by negotiated new
   legislation related to " excise on processors for rewards of maternity " ( EP- RM ).

   The need for the ' new social agreement ' should be presented to the members of the most influential    lobbies by recognized
   politicians. It is beyond   the scope of the scientific project to discuss the way of those negotiations, however the interdisciplinary
   team of scientists, mass - media analysts and politicians can by prepared by possessionof the text containing the
   expertise and a concise, convincing arguments for the necessary ' new social agreement, new legislations and new attitude of
   mass - media ( see bellow ). ( WP B.4 )

   It is important to remark that one thing is the elaboration of the documents enumerated in points II.1 - II 4. and something else
   are actions, performed according to these documents. It is necessary to realize that the discussed ' scientific project ' will prepare
   only the possible actions. However, the eventual realization   of the project in fact will allow also to start these actions.

Formulation of eventual, possible modifications of present cultural pattern, which should be promoted by mass
media to overcome the demographic crisis.

In general the problem of eventual, possible modifications of present cultural pattern can be expressed by the statement that : the possible goal for contemporary woman (couple) { to be pregnant, born the child, bring him up and educate him } should be perceived again as attractive, 'fashionable', prestigious, creative activity. This renewed cultural pattern should be promoted as a result of the special agreement of headquarters controlling the mass media.

In another words the essence of the mentioned ' new spiritual pattern ' should consists on the attitude, on the belief that the modern equivalent of the professional carrier, which very often relays on the work with computers - is the work with children, who need the formation and education much more sophisticated, then programming of computers.

1. The problem is bound very closely to the unemployment. People who feel threatened by the possibility to lose the place of their
job, their position are in fact terrorized. They are fulfilled by the fear about their future, what remove the will to have children.

2. The average level on anxiety is raised by other contemporary cultural factors like permanent taking about war, conflicts, and
    different civilization threats. Also the average pattern of entertainment like movies called as ' horrors, thrillers, reality reports
    and so on' augment the level of anxiety about the future. It is not strange that one of our interlocutress said that she wants not
    to born the 'vivid dead body '.

3. Most European religions ( churches ) promote so called 'pro - family, anti - abortion, pro - life ' attitudes, but the result is not
   satisfactory. Probably the style and ways of this 'pro-family' argumentations is not compatible with the contemporary way of
   thinking of young people. Probably it is bound with the real 'convincing force' of the religious messages. The 'convincing force'
   decreases by reason of another style of the argumentation in daily conversations. Contemporary common talking is based on
   mass media patterns, information technology, psychological, cognitive theories, astronomically based Universe view and modern
   physics. The religious argumentation is based on Aristotle physics and limited, local cosmological outlook. This aspect of the
   problem should be developed in more details.

4. It seems that any kind of ' spiritual leaders ' should give example of the ' pro - family attitudes ', it means it should have a
child or many children. Women should be also the spiritual leaders.

5. The proposed new 'political movement ' should have some initiating watchwords. The possible ones could be: " Citizens,
civilian pro - life project ", " The research on high technology, genomic seems irrelevant when the population has to die out ";
" The prestigious fellowships for women who want to have three children "; and so on...

C. The course of the realization of the project in the part consisting on formulation of necessary influences on actual cultural and spiritual pattern probably should be as follows :

1. The performance of the professional analysis of the real, existing possibilities of the presentation of important substances (
content ) by governmental or other state controlling agendas in the contemporary free market management of mass- media
resources. ( Workpackage C.1. )

2. Anticipation of the result of the analysis mentioned in point 1 incline us to foresee the need of elaboration of the theoretical
   model of analogy between human, personal consciousness and the ' societal consciousness' of a population ( of a
   nation or largerm community like EU ) . This analysis it necessary to argue that the need of the presentation of vital substance (
   information ) important for the survival of the society require the control of the sufficiently powerful mass - media resources.
   ( WP - C.2.)

3.The trial of    formulation of indications for culture leaders - by guiding culture leaders ( prominent talented personages ) on
   the subject how to promote the mentioned idea that { to be pregnant, born the child, bring him up and educate him }
   should be perceived again as attractive, 'fashionable', prestigious, creative activity. It is obvious, that from the point
   of the members of the consortium of the scientific project, the accomplishment of this point can't be obligatory. The consortium
   can only try to search for the possibility of the cooperation with ' talented prominent authors ' convinced for the mentioned idea.
   It is known that many talented creators have opposite, rather pessimistic view of the human condition and fate. ( Workpackage
   III. - )

4. Formulation of indications for ' ministries of education ' considering the necessary changes related to the ' new cultural
   pattern '   in the programs of education in   primary, secondary schools, as well as innovations in programs of colleges and
   universities.
   ( WP C.4 )

5. Formulation of general indications useful for authors of novels, scenarios of movies, and other mass - media performances
   related to the ' new cultural pattern ' . Probably the appropriate ' call for scenarios ' for the competition, should be cyclic   and
   end by the acknowledge of the prestigious, valuable awards.
   ( WP C.5 )

6. Elaboration of the expertise on the problem of immigration designated for the discussion on the forum of the 'council ' and '
foundation ' mentioned in the point 7 and 8 as well in parliaments and mass - media ( WP C.6.)

7. Formulation of possible rules of action of inter - ministerial and institutional ' council ' ( including churches ) - coordinating
and monitoring the course of the influences aiming for the ' new cultural pattern '. ( WP C.7 )

8. Formulation of possible rules of popular, civilian ' pro- life ' foundation ( organization).
( WP C.8 )

D. The course of the realization of the project in the part consisting on elaboration of necessary software
platforms

    1. One of the partners of the consortium should build the professional ' software platform ' , which will aid to any interested
       person ( individual or public representative), who will feel involved in activities preventing the appearing demographic
       catastrophe. We presented some suggestions related to the elaboration of this kind of the website in subchapter: " The
       societal impact module " presented in http://e-learning5.webpark.pl/consciousness.htm
       The provisional title of this kind of the website could be " Guide for people involved in prevention   of demographic catastrophe
       " ( Workpackage D.1 )

    2. Probably it is also reasonable to have immediately    a tool, which could influence or support women or families being
       convinced to the idea of the model ( one women plus two or tree children ). This software module could have the provisional
       title : "Spiritual and financial support for women and families convinced that having a child is chic and it is attractive,
       'fashionable', prestigious, creative activity".

      [ Of course some problem for the plan of our project consist no ' different There are probably only two possible solutions: (1)
      translation of all content of the planed website for any European languages or (2) incorporation of effecting 'machine
      translation tools'. ]

Results for the evaluation by EU RTD&D Commission and the problem of the dissemination of achievements.

The timetable of the performance of the project will foresee the organization of the series of workshops. Probably the appropriate rule for the invitations to the workshops should be the fact that the institution ( person ) elaborated his particular workpackage, which will be realized by him.

Probably the appropriate presentation of result of endeavors will be the publication of two volumes of classic, paper book sub title -- ' of the project ' . First volume should encompass the formulation of workpackages. The second volume will present the progress obtained during the course of the project in the realm of the initial implementations of the statements of the project. These book should be the final result facilitating the final evaluation of the performance of the project.

1. Jeremy Rifkin.:
The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era,
Tarcher/Putman, 1995, 1996 ISBN 0-87477-779-

2. Jeremy Rifkin .:
   The Third Sector - and the Rebirth of Civil Society -
   speech to Strasbourg Parliamentarians / NGO Conference 1999
   http://www.jobsletter.org.nz/art/rifkin01.htm